CVD Risk Calculator
Estimate your 5-year and 10-year absolute cardiovascular risk using the Australian Framingham equation — the same method used by GPs across Australia.
Additional high-risk conditions (if applicable)
Understanding absolute cardiovascular risk
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) includes heart attack (myocardial infarction), stroke, and peripheral vascular disease. It is Australia's leading cause of death — approximately 51,000 Australians die from CVD each year, accounting for around 25% of all deaths.
What does "absolute risk" mean?
Absolute risk is the probability of having a cardiovascular event — heart attack or stroke — within a given time period. A 5-year absolute risk of 12% means 12 out of every 100 people with that risk profile will have a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 years.
Australian clinical guidelines from the National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance (NVDPA) use 5-year absolute risk as the standard for treatment decisions. Your GP uses this number to decide whether to recommend lifestyle changes, preventive medication, or both.
Why 5 years?
The 5-year timeframe is the Australian guideline standard for guiding treatment. The underlying Framingham equation calculates a 10-year risk, which is converted to a 5-year figure using a standard transformation. Both numbers are shown above.
Risk categories (Australian guidelines)
- Low (<10% over 5 years): Focus on healthy lifestyle. Check-up every 2 years.
- Moderate (10–15% over 5 years): See your GP for a full assessment. Lifestyle changes are recommended; medication may be considered.
- High (>15% over 5 years, or automatic high-risk condition): See your GP promptly. Both lifestyle changes and medication are typically recommended.
What affects your CVD risk?
Non-modifiable factors — you can't change these:
- Age: Risk rises sharply from age 45 in men and 55 in women.
- Sex: Men have higher risk at younger ages. Women's risk accelerates after menopause.
- Family history: A first-degree relative with premature CVD increases your risk.
Modifiable factors — you can change these:
- Smoking: Doubles your CVD risk. Quitting for just 1 year halves that excess risk.
- Blood pressure: The #1 modifiable CVD risk factor. Every 10 mmHg reduction in systolic BP reduces CVD risk by around 20%.
- Cholesterol: High LDL and low HDL cholesterol significantly increase risk. A Mediterranean diet can reduce total cholesterol by 10–15%.
- Diabetes: Doubles CVD risk independently. Good blood glucose control substantially reduces this.
- Physical inactivity: Regular exercise (150 min/week) reduces CVD risk by up to 35%.
- Obesity: Especially abdominal obesity. A 5–10% weight reduction meaningfully reduces cardiovascular risk.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians experience CVD at twice the rate of non-Indigenous Australians, and at younger ages. The standard Framingham equation may underestimate risk in this population. Australian guidelines recommend a Heart Health Check from age 35 for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.
When should you see a GP?
If your result is moderate or high risk, see your GP soon. This calculator is a screening aid — your GP will use additional information (full lipid panel, blood glucose, family history, waist circumference, ECG) to complete your assessment.
All Australians aged 45+ should have an absolute CVD risk assessment with their GP every 2 years. A Medicare-funded Heart Health Check (item 699) is available for eligible patients.